FORECASTING NIGERIA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY AND SERVICES USING MINITAB 20.2.0 SOFTWARE (FROM 1981 TO COVID-19)

Abstract

This paper attempt to investigate on Nigeria’s economic growth. In the pursuit to understand the contribution and effect of GDP on its components namely; Agriculture, Industry and Services by considering there growth rate from their respective exponential growth curves models. While Yearly Data were sources from CBN website www.cbn.gov.ng span from 1981 to 2019 of real sector statistics. Minitab 20.2.0 software was used to accomplish the task of the key economy
sectors. A, such Beverton-Holt Economic Recruitment model was applied in other to check the economic growth rate over the period. The model shows that GDP, Agriculture, Services follows unlimited growth Pattern while, industry follows logistics growth Pattern through the various sector trend respectively. Further findings shows that exponential standard measures of forecast accuracy with, 26 MAPE, 2727 MAD and 2181586115 MSD means services sector and industry
sector value had the best smaller model fit. The regression estimates on Agriculture 65.9%, R- sq(adj) of 99.30%, Industry 98.1% R-sq(adj) 97.48% and Services 83.3%, R-sq(adj) of 99.31% measures the goodness of fit and has a positive coefficient determination statistically improved also meaning that all the regression model is approximately significant for this key sectors respectively, the variance inflation factor (VIF) measures the effect of collinearity among the
component in the regression model. VIF is 1/tolerance in addition, the tolerance value is exactly 1, and this further substantiates the absence of multicollinearity in the study. Based on these key findings, the study therefore conclude and recommends that service sector, industrial sector and agricultural sector on the overall GDP respectively played a significant role as it affect the economic development in Nigeria. Hence, Beverton-Holt Economic Recruitment model can be
used in modeling macroeconomic time series. Fits and Diagnostics forecast shows value between 2020 to 2023 indicating that Nigeria’s economy is in take off stage, GDP and other Ramonu Abiodun S.JRSS-NIG. Group Vol. 1(2), 2024, pg. 140 - 1642

ISSN NUMBER: 1116-249X
component measure will exhibit’s a sigmoidal growth curve that will begins rapidly before year