DECADAL ANALYSIS OF TWIN BIRTHS IN NIGERIA WITH ITS SPACE-TIME TREND.

Abstract

Nigeria has one of the highest twin birth rates in the world, yet it faces significant challenges with high twin mortality. This study explores the spatial and temporal dynamics of twin births in Nigeria between 2008 and 2018, focusing on survival outcomes and contributing factors. Leveraging data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS), a Bayesian space- time model with Gaussian intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive (iCAR) priors was applied, using
Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to analyze twin birth rates, survival patterns, and regional disparities. Results indicate a modest increase in the national twin birth rate, from 3.3% in 2008 to 3.6% in 2018. South West region consistently recorded the highest twin birth rates, rising from 4.3% in
2008 to 4.8% in 2018, followed by the South-South and South-East regions. The state level in- depth analysis showed that Ekiti, Bauchi, and Enugu exhibited exceptionally high twin birth rates throughout the period under review. Despite this growth, twin mortality remained critically high, with over 70% of twins not surviving across both years. A slight improvement in twin survival was observed, increasing from 25.5% in 2008 to 26.4% in 2018.
Spatial analysis revealed significant regional disparities, with states like Delta and Kogi showing a marked decline in twin birth rates over the decade, while states like Ekiti, Bauchi, and Enugu maintained persistently high rates.
The persistently high mortality rate among twins emphasizes the urgent need for targeted healthcare interventions, particularly in regions with higher twin birth rates. Enhanced healthcare strategies are essential to reduce mortality and improve the well-being of twins in Nigeria. This study also recommends further research into the underlying causes driving twin birth rates and survival outcomes, aiming to better inform healthcare policies and practices.