Modelling Monthly and Annual variations in precipitation across Geopolitical Zones in Nigeria.
Abstract
Rainfall is a major component of the water cycle, and it is responsible for depositing most of
the fresh water on the earth. It provides suitable conditions for many types of ecosystems, as
well as water for hydro-electric power plant and crop irrigation. Climate change and its
potential impacts have become pressing global concerns, making a thorough understanding of
rainfall patterns in specific regions crucial for sustainable development and disaster
management. This research presents an analysis of rainfall across Nigeria by investigating the
variations in rainfall distribution and intensity over different regions and time periods. This
work utilizes historical meteorological records from the NASA Access Data Viewer platform.
Spatial and trend analysis techniques are employed to identify areas with significant
differences in precipitation amounts and variations. Markovian modelling was also
introduced to model the rainfall dynamics. This enabled the forecast of probabilities of
occurrence. Temporal trends are examined to detect any long-term patterns or shifts in the
occurrence of rainfall events. This study showed that rainfall variability over time follows a
trend within a certain arbitrary boundary with many states now witnessing greater annual
rainfall, but with high variability within the rainy months of the year. The change in the
pattern of rainfall has led to widespread extreme events and a reduction in the length of the
growing season across the country. Such prolonged variability in rainfall may have a
significant effect on the groundwater resources and the hydrology of Nigeria. Therefore,
farmers should endeavour to adopt crops that are drought resistant and early maturing
especially in the Northern region of the country. Other adaptive measures for climate change
include users adjusting their farming calendars for irrigated agriculture according to the
changing rainfall period. It is believed that these recommendations among others could help
avert the impending food insecurity in Nigeria, particularly as the population has been
predicted to double by the year 2050.