Statistical Study on the Impacts of Climatic Factors on the Prevalence of Malaria (A Case Study of Kaduna State)

Abstract

Despite immense efforts to rapidly stem the tide of malaria occurrences across the world, climatic factors and weather patterns continue to be major contributors to malaria transmission, especially within vulnerable communities of the world. The purpose of this research is to look into the statistical relationship between climatic variables and malaria presence in Kaduna State, Northwestern Nigeria. For ten years, from 2011 to 2020, data on malaria cases, temperature, and relative humidity were collected monthly in Kaduna state. To assess the relationship, level of association, and model fitness with the dataset, simple and multiple linear regression, correlation coefficients, and coefficient of determination were used. According to the findings, there was a significant correlation between humidity and malaria cases. This implies malaria cases were more prevalent, months humidity were high, as temperatures exhibit a fair negative relationship with malaria cases. As a result, we recommended that greater emphasis be placed on vector control activities and raising public awareness about the proper use of intervention strategies such as interior residual sprays to mitigate the epidemic, particularly during peak periods with favorable weather conditions.