THE IMPACT OF BIRTH AND DEATH RATES ON NIGERIA’S POPULATION GROWTH: A STATISTICAL PERSPECTIVE.

Abstract

This study examined the impact of birth and death rates on population growth in Nigeria from
2010 to 2024, the data obtained were mainly secondary data sourced from World Bank’s World
Development Indicators (WDI). In this paper, the independent variables are: Birth rate and
Death rate where the response variable is Population Growth. The research employed
descriptive statistics and Multiple Regression analysis to explore the dynamics between
fertility, mortality, and demographic expansion. From the regression model formed through
Multiple regression Analysis, (Y = 1.724 + 0.115 X1 - 0. 294 X2): The model revealed that
Nigeria’s population has grown steadily over the past fifteen years, driven primarily by
persistently high birth rates (0.115) and declining death rates (0.294). The regression findings
indicated that birth rate exerts a strong and significant positive effect on population growth,
while death rate has a weak and negative effect on population growth. The model explained
approximately 93.9% of variations in population growth, suggesting that these demographic
factors are critical determinants of Nigeria’s population trends. Also, the test of
multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation revealed that the data obtained were
free of multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation. Likewise, the adequacy of the
model was confirmed and it was also confirmed that the parameters of the model formed were
significant at a 0.05 level of significance. Based on these findings, the study recommends
strengthening family planning programs, investing in healthcare, and promoting female
education to achieve sustainable population management and balanced economic
development.