MODELLING AND FORECASTING MONTHLY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN  OGBOMOSO, SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA

O. O. Akinade; T. O.  Oguntola; S. A. Oke; L. A.  Oladimeji; F. Rauf

O. O. Akinade Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria
T. O. Oguntola Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria
S. A. Oke Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria
L. A. Oladimeji Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria
F. Rauf Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria

Abstract

Temperature variation may have long-lasting effects on environment and economy. This study
examined the maximum temperature in South-West Nigeria using monthly climate variability data
obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMET) for the period 2013-2023. The data
were statistically analyzed to identify the patterns in maximum temperature. The time plot revealed
a pattern of peaks and troughs, indicates strong seasonality in temperature variations over the study
period. An appropriate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA model was
fitted and used to forecast maximum temperature. The forecast results suggest a gradual but steady
rise in maximum temperature, highlighting a potential warming trend in the study area. These

findings provide valuable insights for climate monitoring and environmental planning in South-
West Nigeria.

Keywords: Maximum Temperature; Climate Variability; SARIMA model; Climate Change

Author Biographies

O. O. Akinade, Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria