Modelling Arable Crop Farmers’ Decisions on Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A Multinomial Logit Analysis in Ogun State

Abstract

Climate and rural farmers’ resource allocation behaviour are primary determinants of agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Hence, knowledge of the rural farmers about climate change is important in order to offer adaptation practices that mitigate its adverse effects. This study, thus, investigated issues on climate change adaptation strategies among arable crop farmers in Ogun State. It utilized primary data collected from 150 arable crop farmers selected across Ogun State through a multistage sampling technique. The data were obtained through administration of questionnaire designed to elicit information on socio- economic characteristics, production activities, as well as adaptation behaviours of the respondents to climate change. The multinomial logit regression model was used to capture choice probabilities across the various options of climate change adaptation strategies. The study result revealed that most (81.08%) of the arable crop farmers were males, majority (69.6%) had no more than primary school education, with an average farming experience of 24 years. Furthermore, 22.97 percent of the respondents did not take up any adaptation strategy, while the remaining either targeted rains to plant (45.95%), used multiple strategies (12.16%), good soil conservation techniques (10.81%), or wetland farming (8.11%). The multinomial logit analysis result showed that household size (p<0.05), gender (p<0.10), years of residence in a community (p<0.05), educational level (p<0.10), frequency of extension contact (p<0.01), access to agricultural credit, and income from secondary occupation (p<0.05) are all important in explaining the choice of climate change adaptation strategies taken up by the arable crop farmers in Ogun State.